Something you might want to read before reading this blog post is my article The Breakdown of Theory from Star City Games. This article outlined my theory for Phases in Magic, how duels progress through three distinct Phases that have particular attributes (quite different from the vague and generally inaccurate early game / mid game / late game typical nomenclature).
The interesting thing that I was thinking about this week is how certain matchups can change in Phase III. The initial example I thought of was my Jushi Blue from New York States 2005 when we went three for three into the Top 8, losing only to one another.
My Top 4 matchup was with a player called Eric Marro with Splice Gifts (whom I had previously beaten in the Swiss). The Gifts matchup was generally considered to be in favor of Jushi Blue (in fact, my friend Julian Levin originally intended to play Gifts but I soundly beat him something like 6-0 the week prior to States and he decided to switch to the good guy team… with fine result). However the interesting thing was that my games with Eric in the Top 4 went verylong — easily to the Phase III stage of the game — and something unexpected happened.
I actually started to run out of “stuff”!
Check out our deck lists:
Flores
1 Mikokoro, Center of the Sea
2 Dimir Aqueduct
10 Island
1 Miren, the Moaning Well
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
4 Quicksand
1 Shizo, Death’s Storehouse
4 Watery Grave
1 Minamo, School at Water’s Edge
3 Meloku the Clouded Mirror
4 Jushi Apprentice
3 Keiga, the Tide Star
4 Boomerang
3 Disrupting Shoal
4 Hinder
4 Mana Leak
4 Remand
2 Rewind
4 Threads of Disloyalty
Sideboard
3 Cranial Extraction
4 Execute
4 Drift of Phantasms
2 Rewind
1 Dimir Aqueduct
1 Meloku the Clouded Mirror
Marro:
1 Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers
7 Forest
1 Island
3 Llanowar Wastes
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Shizo, Death’s Storehouse
5 Swamp
2 Tendo Ice Bridge
1 Watery Grave
1 Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni
1 Hana Kami
3 Kagemaro, First to Suffer
1 Kokusho, the Evening Star
2 Meloku the Clouded Mirror
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Carven Caryatid
1 Myojin of Night’s Reach
1 Death Denied
1 Farseek
4 Gifts Ungiven
1 Goryo’s Vengeance
4 Kodama’s Reach
2 Putrefy
4 Sensei’s Divining Top
4 Sickening Shoal
1 Soulless Revival
1 Wear Away
Sideboard
1 Cranial Extraction
1 Execute
1 Exile into Darkness
1 Ghost-Lit Stalker
1 Goryo’s Vengeance
1 Grave-Shell Scarab
2 Hideous Laughter
1 Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni
2 Kokusho, the Evening Star
1 Nezumi Graverobber
1 Pithing Needle
1 Rending Vines
1 Shadow of Doubt
My deck — per usual for me designing a Blue deck — was built for speed. It was built for Defensive Deck Speed, answering opponents very quickly, and then tried to accrue sufficient card advantage to overwhelm a Gifts-type opponent by switching to beatdown and protecting Keiga or Meloku for the few turns necessary to force the terminus. The problem was that while I had fast reaction to everything Eric could present in Phases I-II, it seemed like the games could go long enough that he could “come back” just because he had more “stuff” than I did.
In fact, this is a mis-analysis. Gifts should win in Phase III, should it get to a true Phase III position. Jushi is the beatdown; consider:
Remand is a great card, one-for-one. However the opponent still has the card (if not the mana he put into the card) whereas you cycle into something else (which can be an awesome card, or it might be a Dimir Aqueduct).
Mana Leak is a great card on turn two, useless in Phase III if the opponent is careful.
Hinder is like Remand, but stranger… It is one-for-one, but in a really long game, Eric would still have that “countered stuff” in his deck whereas I could at some point be in a position of deck exhaustion.
Unexpectedly — and from a Phases perspective — the Jushi deck wants to keep the match in a deep Phase II. Jushi’s Phase II is better than Splice’s Phase II. Jushi does not have a legitimate Phase III (simply the best Phase II in the format at the time), however it can be trumped by Splice’s legitimate Phase III, should the game come to that point.
I lost both Game Ones to Eric (both in Swiss and in the Top 8)… At the time I blamed it on drawing too many Threads of Disloyalty (which was probably partly true), but I think I may have erred on Misassignment of Game Role! Imagine! Jushi is the beatdown in the Gifts matchup because it can’t withstand a Phase III (Eric overwhelmed me in both the Game Ones he took, going long), complete with a Sculpting of the Perfect Hand on his part.
Here is a short interview with Eric Marro from Top8Magic
Here is BDM and Julian chatting about my matchup
So why am I thinking about this right now?
Well, part of it is that I am working on States decks for 2008… and part of it is that I am kind of worried about losing in Phase III even if I love my deck.
Here is a four-color control deck that is my current favorite deck:
2 Makeshift Mannequin
2 Shriekmaw
4 Cryptic Command
4 Mulldrifter
4 Remove Soul
4 Bant Charm
4 Esper Charm
4 Kitchen Finks
2 Archon of Justice
4 Wrath of God
4 Flooded Grove
4 Mystic Gate
2 Plains
4 Reflecting Pool
4 Sunken Ruins
4 Vivid Creek
4 Vivid Meadow
Sideboard
4 Relic of Progenitus
3 Primal Command
4 Condemn
4 Wispmare
Here is a five-color control deck advocated by Evan Erwin from a recent episode of The Magic Show:
3 Island
2 Pyroclasm
2 Wrath of God
1 Condemn
1 Cascade Bluffs
2 Flooded Grove
1 Nucklavee
4 Mulldrifter
4 Cryptic Command
2 Shriekmaw
4 Vivid Creek
3 Vivid Grove
3 Vivid Marsh
2 Vivid Meadow
2 Negate
2 Cruel Ultimatum
3 Esper Charm
3 Bant Charm
2 Mystic Gate
1 Firespout
3 Fulminator Mage
4 Kitchen Finks
2 Sunken Ruins
4 Reflecting Pool
Sideboard
3 Condemn
2 Cloudthresher
2 Jace Beleren
1 Makeshift Mannequin
2 Mind Shatter
1 Cruel Ultimatum
1 Bant Charm
3 Memory Plunder
Evan’s deck has Cruel Ultimatum… Per my usual designs, I have built my control deck to tap out quickly and for Defensive Deck Speed. Will it lose, lacking a Phase III, in this mirror?
By the by, Memory Plunder in Evan’s sideboard looks pretty saucy for the mirror. I built my deck so that I could theoretically sideboard Knight of the White Orchid for the mirror; you can see what a difference in philosophy that is… I want to start winning in Phase I or Phase II whereas the Erwin / Chapin set wants even more Cruel Ultimatums. Realistically, I think I will have to sideboard Hindering Light to win, nay crush, in the mirror’s long game.
Hey anyone who is reading this!
This is my first blog post (duh, I guess).
A lot of people have been asking me about Star City. I just want to say there are no hard feelings (from my end, any way) and that I plan to write there in the future. Leaving my weekly column was something I had been considering for some time, and it was just time.
However I did write one last article that was never published on Star City. It is kind of uselessly dated now that the Magic Hall of Fame for this year has been decided already, but here it is for anyone who wants to read my last, never-was article for Star City Games dot com.
Enjoy!
(This was originally intended for 29 August 2008.)
–michaelj
First Impressions, Two Trees, and the Democratic Process
The US presidential election is still a little ways off, but ballots for the 2008 Pro Tour Hall of Fame are due… um… today.
Okay then!
I started with the original 66 potential members list and cut down to the 10 or 11 players I would seriously consider voting for (this includes all of the still-eligible candidates I had voted for in the past… or at least all of the still-eligible candidates I remember voting for in the past).
The list of players I cut to was pretty arbitrary, and left off more than one of my good friends, people I talk to or hang out with on a regular basis:
Dirk Baberowski
Marco Blume
Brian Hacker
Itaru Ishida
William Jensen
Steven O’Mahoney-Schwartz
Chris Pikula
David Price
Ben Rubin
Michael Turian
Jelger Wiegersma
Of the players I had voted for in the past, I decided to cut most of them off the bat, leaving the following:
Dirk Baberowski
Marco Blume
William Jensen
Steven O’Mahoney-Schwartz
Chris Pikula
Ben Rubin
Michael Turian
Jelger Wiegersma
I still firmly believe that Brian Hacker should have been first class; if you want to look at a previous ballot that I was very proud of writing, please consider One Man’s Ballot from 2006, which in addition to being awesome contains an engaging if somewhat factually inaccurate section on Randy Couture… who has since made a mixed martial arts comeback, won the UFC heavyweight title, and retired again (to the annoyance of Dana White, agents, and lawyers aplenty)… at least unless he can get his superfight.
On the subject of mixed martial arts, hrm… in a bit.
So I am left with eight players, these eight in fact:
Dirk Baberowski
Probably the best player on this year’s ballot, Dirk is typically the fourth player mentioned in the crowd of “Kai, Jon, and Bob” in terms of ability. He was always held in high regard especially by Kai, and if anyone’s opinion means anything, it has to be Budde’s. It is easy to think of Dirk as “merely” a multiple Pro Tour Champion due to his membership in Phoenix Foundation, but don’t forget that he won (if memory serves) his rookie Pro Tour… and that Pro Tour was a draft victory… with green-white. If that isn’t a testament to skill, I don’t know what is. The rules have changed this year (you need vote share to get into the Hall of Fame, rather than just being one of the five most popular); if any player is a lock under the new system, I think it is Dirk.
Marco Blume
Three Pro Tour Top 8s. Two wins. Two wins. Yes, they were with Phoenix Foundation, but… two wins. No matter what anyone ever said about Marco over the years (Gary Wise used to talk about restaurants in terms of how much Marco would have liked one of them) the one thing that I will always remember about him has nothing to do with him, personally. I misspelled his name in a Deck Histories and Concepts article on Ponza Rotta Red as Maro Blume (he was a German National Champion), and when the bags at the Pojo plagiarized the article, they made sure to leave that misspelling in rather than fix it; now there was (is?) a site that was (is?) as editorially capable as it was (is?) ethical!
William Jensen
I always had a good relationship with Huey over the years but I don’t know that I would have short listed him at all but for a forum post that I read by my good friend Jonathan Becker just last week. You can read Jon’s post here, in Teddy Card Game’s forum from last week.
I taunt Jon all the time, disagree with him on sports (I am currently in arrears one Katz’s pastrami sandwich), and so on but Becker really is pretty awesome (if a former member of the Tongo Nation); I have been lucky enough to have made Jonathan my son’s Sirius Black, even.
Jon’s post pointed out that in a significantly shorter career than Ben Rubin, Huey had the same number of Top 8s (including a win, which Ben lacks), and more Grand Prix Top 8s, as well as (slightly) superior average finishes. Rubin fans will be quick to point out Ben’s Masters victories, but you know what? Huey won the very first (a lot of people forget that one)!
Steven O’Mahoney-Schwartz
Steve should have been first class. Shame on me for not voting for him then. I don’t think that most people fathom how good Steve was (heck, is… he played in I think one Grand Prix last year, and won it!) when he was on top. He was the strongest Rochester drafter in the world at his height (or if he was second, it was only to Jon, whom he beat in the LA finals), and racked up double-digit Grand Prix Top 8s in addition to winning odd things that most people on the ballot have never done, like taking a Master’s Grinder with G/R at the dawn of Psychatog. Steve’s ~$88K in lifetime winnings might not seem huge against today’s full list of top performers, but he actually retired something like third or fourth in lifetime winnings. I hadn’t thought of this until just now, but Steve also played the most impressive game I had ever seen, at least by April 2, 2002.
Chris Pikula
I don’t know what I was thinking in 2005. I mean maybe you could read A Bunch of Topics and try to figure it out yourself. Buehler himself called me due to my not voting for Comer (I should have voted for Comer, probably, and immediately regretted not doing so). I wish I hadn’t talked to Teddy Card Game that one time because then I probably just would have voted for Finkel, SteveO, Hacker, DaveP, and of course the Meddling Mage. This would have been a fine ballot, certainly better than the one I turned in.
Three years later the Hall of Fame criteria remain performances, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, and contributions to the game in general. For a Hall of Fame candidate in 2008, Chris is probably slightly below average for performances and playing ability, but he was average-or-better in 2005, and a paragon or near-paragon of integrity, sportsmanship, and contributions to the game in general (Pro Tour community, having the coolest Invitational card, tournament report writing, storytelling) all in 2005, and remains so today. Personally I feel like most ballots overly favor performances to the exclusion of everything else — including playing ability to be quite frank — which is a harsh flaw on the part of the voters, not the system. This year, Chris for certain has my vote.
Ben Rubin
I’m definitely voting for Ben. I wish I could have voted for Ben last year, but which of Kai, Zvi, Tsuyoshi, Turian, and Randy could I have cut? Kai only, and Mike didn’t even make it.
Michael Turian
Speaking of Mike… I think it’s a crime he didn’t make the team last year.
Jelger Wiegersma
Scuttlebut in some circles is that Jelger is just the best player on Tour now (again); be might not be tops in performances, but he has a Grand Prix Top 8 that isn’t even dry yet. I don’t know Jelger very well or have very much to say about him so I am just going to go into the storytelling section.
The first time I met Jelger Wiegersma was a Sunday afternoon in 2004. I just checked a calendar, and in fact, I think it was July 4, 2004 based on the timing. Gerrard Fabiano called me to ask if I wanted to eat at Plataforma and of course I said yes. He and some TOGIT guys brought along some foreigners but I had no idea who they were; I would probably have recognized their third, standout Kamiel Cornelissen, but these other two, I had no idea who they were at the time. Okay maybe I knew Jeroen was that Rock guy.
However I definitely didn’t recognize Jelger on sight (I had been averaging one or fewer Pro Tours per year for about three years running at that point), so I had no idea exactly what kind of hole I was digging when I started talking about Affinity. I decided that Somber Hoverguard was the best card in Affinity (“it’s the only card that lets Affinity beat my Green deck”) and rolled my eyes and dismissed Jelger with his cockamamie theory about this “Aether Vial.” Jelger actually humored me. His graciousness was rewarded by the gods, and Von Dutch took Pro Tour Seattle the following week.
It wasn’t until much later that I found out that he was coming off an Affinity Pro Tour Top 8… With Aether Vials and no Somber Hoverguards.
But for right now I am not voting for Jelger. Here is my final five:
William Jensen
Steven O’Mahoney-Schwartz
Chris Pikula
Ben Rubin
Mike Turian
I didn’t vote for Dirk, but that doesn’t seem remotely as blasphemous as not voting for Jon or Kai (though Josh [Ravitz] suggested I vote for Marco and not Dirk, just to see what happened). I feel like Dirk is very likely to make the Hall of Fame this year, and that I can spend my votes for different kinds of recognition, or at least to help keep some players on the ballots so they can claim Hall of Fame slots in the future.
William Jensen
I decided very early that I was going to vote for Ben Rubin, and what can I say? Becker’s side-by-side comparison swayed me to vote for Billy Jensen, the “other” Rubin, at least on paper.
There are a lot of very good Billy Jensen stories, but this is my favorite:
I am on a flight to Pro Tour Los Angeles and end up on the same one as Huey. I am qualified on rating and have very few actual drafts under my belt (my only practice draft being a local sanctioned 8-man after ratings qualifications are awarded, where I went down 0-2 to Mowshowitz). Billy instructed me how to draft.
“In this format, I like Green-Black or Green-Blue.
“Basically, in this format, you want a tree.
“Green-Black is great because people have all these stupid little Rebels, and the fact is, they can’t deal with a tree. If you have a tree and a Banishing, come on. Usually they need two cards to deal with your tree, and you play your Banishing, and it’s even worse for them than they originally though.
“Green-Blue is almost as good because a tree and a Counterspell. Wow! Like I said, they can’t deal with your tree to begin with, but a tree attacking them? With a Counterspell in hand? That’s basically like having to deal with two trees… and they couldn’t deal with the first one!”
I foolishly tried to draft a non-Huey scripted strategy in my first draft and quickly had my back to the wall. I missed Day Two on a combination of savage cheating and, believe it or not, blatant judge collusion. Luckily, I was able to hold up the Pro Tour for two hours complaining to the DCI, which was a personal victory because think about the sheer amount of wasted group time! Talk about sharing my misery with the world! (Or at least the rest of the Pro Tour). Huey’s U/G got me a 2-1 in the next draft, though.
I had a separate problem, then, which was I had like five losses in the last two weeks, which blew my top 25 rating. Luckily I won the Nemesis Prerelease at the Pro Tour undefeated in games, as well as a half a dozen Nemesis side events, where I did Huey proud, drafting “Blastoderms and Banishings” every time. Rating was safely back in place… only to be blown at that summer’s US Nationals.
Steven O’Mahoney-Schwartz
I spent quite some time rasslin’ with Google to find an Edison, NJ Type II report from 1997 where I first met Steve OMS (he put me to 3-1 in Round Four but we both made Top 8). I was going to paste it but I wrote like a bit of an ass (how did I ever catch on?) plus I dropped an F-bomb. If you want to read about a U/W deck from 1997 yourself, have at thee.
Instead, I’ll post my all-time favorite Steve story for the 777th time:
It may have not seemed like much; both of these great Pro Tour Champions was now just one match out of Top 8 contention at the 2000 U.S. Nationals. In the last round of Swiss, just one year before that vaunted expansion of prize money, with nothing on the line but some DCI points that would be ultimately meaningless for combatants of such standing, these players clashed for nothing but pride… and the opportunity to show off a perfect game.
Steve knew that Dave was running Replenish. Going first, his hand was absolutely perfect… A couple of lands, a Dark Ritual, a Phyrexian Negator, a Stromgald Cabal, and that most miserly of mulligans, the Vampiric Tutor itself, stared back at the boy from Brooklyn.
Think back at what you would have done with a grip like this.
Testing showed that in order to beat a Stromgald Cabal, Replenish needed either to ramp up to eight mana under absolutely no pressure or to have a Ring of Gix in play. Steve knew that if YMG had Ring of Gix at all, it wouldn’t have been in the main deck. My first instinct as a spectator and Silver Bullet player was “swamp, Ritual, win!”
And then Steve showed me the right play.
Instead of turn-1 Stromgald Cabal, Steve went for turn-1 Phyrexian Negator. After the Hump passed his first turn, Steve untapped, cast Vampiric Tutor on his upkeep for a second Dark Ritual, and ensured the win by playing Stromgald Cabal on turn 2. Watching this game, it was painfully obvious how vastly superior Steve’s play was to the one I would have made. Of all the people to whom I have ever told this story, the only ones who came up with the complete, correct, answer to that opening hand were Pro Tour champions Finkel and Mowshowitz.
Zvi once explained to me that the problem with perfect play is that, especially with an overpowered-yet-decision-heavy deck like Napster or Turbo-Land, you will have ten possible plays, nine of which are wrong, but seven of which win the game. Making a play like mine would have in all likelihood won the game at some point, but would not have promoted correct play… In fact, a win in the face of an error rewards being bad. Go figure.
For his part, Jonathan Magic said “Mike, if you keep testing with me and Steve, that will be the only play you see!”
Delighted at this prospect, I was prepared to become a technically proficient Magician. Of course history tells us that immediately after this brilliant Championship-over-Championship summer for The Machine, despite a subsequent pair of back-to-back PT Top 8s, Jonathan Magic decided to completely eschew Pro Tour preparation…
… And I remain exactly as bad as I ever was.
Chris Pikula
Looking back to that 1997 tournament report against Steve, and now gazing back to my first Pro Tour*, where I — through Worth Wollpert — worked with Chris Pikula, it strikes me that I must have been some kind of annoying barnacle. You know that guy who barges into your conversations with cooler Magic players, tries to attach himself to your entourage, swipes your deck (but then fails to make Top 8 or Top 16 with it)… I am pretty sure that was me!
Wow, holy dark mirror Batman. Like Spock with a moustache or something.
I mean now I’m basically a slick-haired, wolf-lean, rock star of a Magic player, but honestly… I have no idea why Chris is still willing to talk to me at all. Maybe if I continue to vote for him?
By about 1998 or 1999 I was “off” the Pro Tour (for the first time, it seems). Snow was high as an elephant’s eye and at that point I was just not serious about getting on the Pro Tour (contrast with my 2001 self, who would fly to PTQs)… But Chris called me and told me to make the long overnight trek to this Detroit PTQ being run by Mike Guptil. I read a Brian Weissman analysis of the format and visualized Brilliant Halo. For the first time, I made a multi-day trip for a PTQ. Eleven or so rounds later, I had the envelope.
I don’t know how long I would have continued to play Magic but for that win. I just don’t know. I was on fire (at least in terms of local play) for the rest of the school year, winning another PTQ, Top 4 at Regionals, then a set of Grand Prix and Nationals runs that would cement ratings-based invites for every Pro Tour for the next year and a half… But that second PTQ win was another lengthy trip to Detroit, and the Regionals was a four hour drive to a Mike Guptil event in Columbus. I was in law school at the time, and my parents were trying to straighten me out and make something useful of me. Would I have ever moved to New York to manage The Dojo? I really do wonder.
Ben Rubin
Ben and I have a lot of friends in common, but I don’t know him very well. My first clear memory of him (beyond Dave’s beating him to take LA in 1998) was a road trip with Brian Schneider, who declared Ben “one of the greatest of all time” with just his LA and Worlds finishes behind him… no Masters wins yet, no sickestever.dec yet. Brian’s opinions are good enough for me.
I think I might owe Ben a blue envelope, though. It was a Las Vegas PTQ in 2001, which I flew to to hang out with Bill Macey. John Shuler, Chapin, edt, and Buehler were also there. Anyway, I was 14-0 in games through three tournaments against Donate, the top combo deck of the day, (a Grand Prix Trial I had won, a Grand Prix, and the PTQ itself) going into a Donate matchup in the finals. My opponent wanted to scoop the slot. I was riding pretty high on my zero game losses, and intended to play. It was Ben who explained this concept of “what happens if you get manascrewed” to me, and I walked away with the envelope, and even got to keep a decnt chunk of the travel award.
Mike Turian
I was going to write about the first time I met Mike, which was at a Mir/Vis/Lite constructed PTQ in 1997 (I committed one of those all-too-common Flores brain farts to miss Top 8, even though my Mono-Blue deck had Cloud Elemental instead of Ophidian). I thought Mike was just one of those goofball local scrubs due to his G/W Striped Bears / Mistmoon Griffin strategy, but he not only won the PTQ (if memory serves), but placed in the Top 8 of the subsequent Grand Prix with the same deck (this he definitely did). Some scrub!
No one needs to be convinced about Mike’s playing ability. You can just look at the numbers. Listen to the right people, and they will have you believe that Mike is the greatest Limited player of all time (I vote for Jon)… But instead I want to think about Mike the ambassador of the game. I roomed with him at a Pro Tour just before Ravnica, and he was full of so much joy about seeing some cards he worked on actually in print. I think that some people might shy away for voting for Mike because he works for Wizards of the Coast, but the thing about working at WotC that stuck with me (from Mike’s perspective that is) was that working at WotC was even more fun than weekends! Imagine the acquisition that could be harnessed by bottling that sentiment.
Well, those are my votes for this year. Discuss (I’m sure you will).
LOVE
MIKE
* Hacker was first after the Swiss.
P.S. Is it the last PTQ of the year tomorrow?