Cascade Swans… Cascade Assault… Whatever you want to call it, it may be the hot new It Deck of the Standard format. We took a spin with it to give our first impressions of the team of Bloodbraid Elf, Seismic Assault, and Swans of Bryn Argoll!
Numerous people including Josh Ravitz and my man Iñigo Romero Martialay told me I should take a look at some new Cascade Swans deck. I had no idea that there was any other kind of Swans deck than the familiar control-esque Extended port as I had not looked at all the Regionals Top 8 deck lists yet. Little did I know that this deck was / is the realization of this little snippit you may have seen on Facebook…
Well Kowal, it was actually forty-two lands.
I looked up the deck lists on ye olde Mother Ship and battled out with this bit of innovation by Parth Modi:
2 Ad Nauseam
4 Bituminous Blast
4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Swans of Bryn Argoll
4 Seismic Assault
4 Reflecting Pool
4 Graven Cairns
4 Cascade Bluffs
4 Rugged Prairie
4 Ghitu Encampment
4 Treetop Village
4 Spinerock Knoll
4 Vivid Crag
4 Vivid Marsh
1 Mutavault
4 Fire-Lit Thicket
1 Mountain
sideboard:
4 Qasali Pridemage
3 Vexing Shusher
2 Volcanic Fallout
1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Aura of Silence
2 Ajani Vengeant
1 Ad Nauseam
For those of you who haven’t figured it out yet, this deck is chock full of lands (many of them functional). So it doesn’t draw much other than lands; there are four major spell slots, which stick together two-plus-two like LEGOs:
- Bituminous Blast and Bloodbraid Elf
- Swans of Bryn Argoll and Seismic Assault
The Cascade twins are there to flip the functional cards. Bloodbraid Elf can literally only flip over Seismic Assault; Bituminous Blast can flip any of the other three cards (the cream dream of course being Bituminous Blast into Bloodbraid Elf into Seismic Assault).
With such a dense percentage of lands, the Swans + Assault combination is generally lethal. That is, every land pointing at a Swans of Bryn Argoll is 70% likely to flip another land; a minimum of one land per cycle will at least “keep you going” more or less “forever” until such point that you have 10 lands to throw at the opponent’s noggin.
Ad Nauseum has generally less risk in this deck than most because there are lots of lands. You can pick up lots of lands to kill the opponent with a Seismic Assault, or pick up essentially any of the other cards to set up or complete the combo.
I took the deck for a spin in the Tournament Practice room last night. Here’s how it went…
ONE – Howling Mine / Fog deck
This matchup is basically un-losable. You don’t even really need “the other half” of the combo because if you set up the Assault they are giving you plenty of fodder to kill them to death.
1-0/2-0
TWO – G/R Beatdown “Red Deck”
I actually took some footage of this matchup, which time willing, will end up on the long-lost Five With Flores YouTube page this weekend.
Game One I had him dead (he was all tapped out and such) and I played Ad Nauseum. I was quite beaten up and went to five on Ad Nauseum and decided to keep rolling (I don’t know what I was thinking). Actually I do know… I was thinking my deck has Swans and Elves and I can go to one because he is tapped out. Forget about the fact that I had just played a five. So of course I killed myself.
Game Two I won easily on turn four, playing the Assault then playing the Swans; his interaction was minimal.
Game Three one of the weaknesses of this fledgling strategy was revealed. It is fast in the sense that it can win on turn five, but the Cascade Swans deck isn’t fast-fast, and can’t really defend itself very well. Plus a big chunk of the cards are these clumsy fives that you can’t even play in a lot of games. So he had a Tattermunge / Jund Hackblade draw and just raced me.
1-1/3-2 (Should have been 2-0/4-0 though, due to Game One killing myself on unfamiliarity).
THREE – Five-color Zoo
This matchup is a mess. It’s basically like it would be against Jund Mana Ramp. I don’t think that Cascade Swans has a very good chance, ever. He just went good guys, then kolded my Swans with a Cryptic Command and killed me with an Anathemancer (Jund can do the same thing with a Shriekmaw / Makeshift Mannequin). Finks, Finks, Treetop, etc.
Game Two I actually drew a lot of spells! It was kind of funny. I couldn’t cast my dumb Bituminous Blasts, of which I had four in grip. He Runed Halo’d me, which revealed that you basically have to side in the anti-permanents package every single game. I did not. I was defeated soundly; his Identity Crisis was gravy.
1-2/3-4
FOUR – Turbo Mill
Game One I beat him very tricky-like. I played an attrition / exhaustion game, and killed him in response to Jace ultimate + Hideaway lands on a tap-out. It was very late and I had already forgotten the lesson of the previous match, and neglected to side in any of my artifact kill. Embarassingly, I was kolded by lots of Pithing Needles in the second, and just got my relevant jones countered in the third (not that hard when you have almost no spells).
1-3/4-6
FIVE – Finest Hour
Game One I got the super dream:
Turn two Spinerock Knoll, imprinting Swans of Bryn Argoll.
Turn three Seismic Assault.
Turn four point eight at the opponent, activate Knoll, complete the combo. He actually had a Bant Charm for my Swans, but I had enough lands in hand at that point to win in response.
I stone fell asleep during the second game and conceded match. It was quite late and I was literally only up on account of being super pissed off at the Cavs’ losing to the dumb Orlando Magic last night, giving up a sixteen point lead, yadda yadda yadda. I’m sure I would have won the match, though 🙂
1-4/5-something
Preliminary Analysis:
The deck is actually insane in Game One situations. I won almost every Game One despite having no familiarity with the deck and actually being so unfamiliar that I killed myself with my opponent literally dead to the cards I already had set up.
However it is incredibly easy to hate out in its present configuration. Like I said already you kind of have to side in anti-Pithing Needle and anti-Runed Halo cards Every. Single. Time. Because of that I think that Maelstrom Pulse should be a sideboard four-of, specifically due to the kinds of cards you will likely see set up against you (permanents in play, often in multiples).
My preliminary testing shows that Bituminous Blast is godawful. The so-called cream dream doesn’t even set up the full combo, and five mana is a lot to ask, even from a deck that will hit five lands on turn five almost every game. This may sound stupid, but I couldn’t play the Black for Bituminous Blast more than once. Don’t get me started on playing Bituminous Blast in order to flip over Qasali Pridemage. Just embarassing.
The man lands were kind of irrelevant. I know what they are supposed to be there for, but my Encampments just got eaten by Plumeveils and Jund Charms more than once.
It has been said elsewhere and I think that I agree on switching out Bituminous Blast for Deny Reality. Deny Reality gives you a functional card in terms of being able to deal with a combo-hating permanent that can potentially set up the win.
Despite my reservations with the deck — and absolutely dismal batting average in ye olde Tournament Practice Room — I would say that this is simply the most compelling strategy in Standard other than Jund Mana Ramp. My intuition is that the deck is a dog to some of the actual decks I like, but it is also the kind of deck that many Pros automatically gravitate toward when selecting a deck. It is powerful, and you get what you get (other than the iffy swings on Bituminous Blast). The Game One capabilities alone make it a good candidate for closer review, regardless of one man’s initial W/L.
LOVE
MIKE
11 comments ↓
I think your final consideration of the deck is pretty correct. Sure, you got the crap beat out of you, but it’s possible this deck is a bit like Dredge (I have no idea how good this comparison is, so please don’t crucify me for saying so) in that your Game 1s are going to be fantastic and then hopefully you can just get 1 of the next 2. It may also be the kind of deck that is perfect for specific tournaments and will reward people for correctly assessing when it is a good choice and when it is not.
Once you swap Bituminous Blast for Deny Reality, things get tons better for you. First of all, you don’t need a dude in play to use it. Second of all, Deny Reality messes really hardcore with random stuff like Pithing Needle or Runed Halo (the latter of which I assume you’re more likely to see in Game 1). In fact, most people will probably run their Runed Halo out there going off of the Top 8 list and thinking it’s just game. If you’ve got the Deny Reality you’re suddenly in much better shape (in fact, they might be flat out dead).
To be honest, with Deny Reality in the deck the options of combating you are pretty slim. Since you can easily attack from multiple angles just via Bloodbraid / manland beats (I think the manlands are crucial, by the way) it makes properly countering this deck pretty hard. They naturally have to devote a lot of energy to stopping your combo because of how resilient it is. If they’re going a Runed Halo route, they have to drop the card in multiples to prevent losing to Deny Reality. If they’re trying to remove your Seismic Assaults they’ve got innumerable to deal with since so many of your Cascade spells will hit them. Trying to kill Swans is a rough angle too since you can go off in response as you mentioned.
The problem you experienced with Bituminous Blast in terms of mana obviously isn’t a big deal. The original base can be tweaked pretty easily, of course.
From the games I’ve played with the deck, I really hate Spinerock Knoll.
Hey internet
I, like a real man, played this deck before cascade. with a cheapo manabase (20 vivids/crumbling necropolis and some islands and mountains). In the tournament practice room, i hit about 1 50/50 win percentage, not super hot, but not awful. Of my five or so quees (8-mans), i dropped three first round, won a game in another, and took down the last. it was good times.
Man, i wish cascade came out earlier! the real problem was not finding the seismic. I played with ponders and pyroclasms, and a ravens crime. Game one is usually quite good for the deck. Faeires and doran were unwinnable, monored 60%, blightning 40%, tokens (most any, even b/w unless they get a quick sculler) is just over 50%, the rest 50/50. Mind you, this is my experience, and that can be chalked up to surprise and t3h nuuuubz in the tournament practice room, good players that know how to play against combo can be bad with most decks.
Anyways, thats my rant.
It’s an absolute scream to play, and, to all other broke dudes out there, can be about 20 tix (with sketchy vivid mana).
FUn, crazy deck. Thanks for covering this deck, sir
hey man, with the entry of deny reality,would be changes in the base mana?
which u suggests to sb?
thx and keep going !!! 😀
For threat diversification, this seems like a deck that Countryside Crusher would enjoy being in. On the one hand you don’ t want him jumping in front of your cascades. But on the other, untapping with him in play means you get a huge attacker and are guaranteed to draw a spell.
I don’t think you can run Countryside Crusher here. First, even if he becomes large, he is easily handled by a simple Terror or Path etc. etc., something that even postboard they will most likely be running in order to blow up Swans. Millings tons of land to get to a spell can actually disrupt the deck’s primary engine pretty badly, since to kill people from 20 I’ve often had to dig quite deep into the deck, nearly drawing all the cards.
The way to go seems to be to move Countryside Crusher to the board. You could even move the other guys to the board, and then when Game 2 comes around, you side in all of your guys while they’re siding out all their mass removal. Too exiting.
Yeah I see the Crusher’s contribution as Threat Diversity and … what’s that word you have for $ of threats Mike? Multiplicity?
The deck seems really good. I’d have to disagree about putting in Deny Reality though. I just think you’d be losing more than you gain. There is really no combo in standard right now except this deck. Even then I think Blast is better because, most importantly, it’s an instant. Which gives you the option of getting out 1/2 of your combo at end of your opps turn. It also deals with aggro/beater decks which seem to be the bane of this deck, besides your normal combo hosers. You don’t really gain anything from your mana base by switching either because you still have to run black =[ Keep blasts IMO.
Let me explain a little more then.
First, I want to be clear that I don’t think your conclusions are wrong. Good hand to keep. The problem I have is how you arrive at that conclusion. More importantly, what your article is emphasising as important. I don’t think the effort to do the math to 1% is worthwile, and at the same time the article ignores or plays lipservice to the things that are important. That’s what I feel is misleading.
I’d propose the simple rule:
You should mulligan if:
In the game you are expecting, a random smaller hand is likely to be better than your current hand.
Let’s look at the things you aren’t paying real service to:
– you don’t discuss what you expect your opponent to be playing at all. You don’t say in this metagame I expect… or knowing my opponent I expect him to be playing…
– you hint that this hand is better than random hands if it draws out properly, but I’m not reading this as being a clear “this is probably a great hand if I draw out”.
Maybe I’m just not aware of the greater context of this article. But it seems to me that you barely noticed two really important parts of the background and the mulligan decision.Instead this article focuses on math.
A fair bit of math actually. You work out the percentages of drawing the right mana help to within a percentage point. And I have to ask if that level of precision is meaningful. Here’s a question you don’t answer: at what percentage do you throw back the hand. If you have a 78% percent chance of drawing out is that keepable? Maybe 77%? What about 76%?
I don’t think you can answer that question because I don’t think there is a good answer. The stats just don’t matter to the precision you are discussing. The bulk of the article (the mathy parts) should reasonably be replaced by your conclusion “(Keeping) is a good bet, so I kept.”
Unless you present an argument that is based on being that precise by saying something like “I keep if the odds of drawing the mana I need are 57% or better” then the exercise of narrowing down to a specific number is pretty much meaningless. Its a distraction, it is not the important part of the argument. You are going down a rabit hole to a depth that really doesn’t matter.
And that’s the fault I have with this article. You skip lightly over some really important things (expected matchup, what a random smaller hand is likely to look like) and are very focused on a level of precision that doesn’t matter.
Which I think is misleading.
The difference between the exact 79-80% number and my rough estimate that you’ll draw out somewhere between 7/8 (1-1/2*1/2*1/2) and 2/3rds (1-1/2*1/2*2/3) of the time isn’t meaningful. Its a good bet, keep the hand.
Ooops wrong post. Sorry about that… no idea how that happened. I’ll repost in the right place and hope you can delete the post(s) here. Can’t seem to do that myself. 🙁
I played Cascade Swans at last FNM and came in 3-1. I ran Deny Reality instead of Bituminous Blast because, as others have noted, the Blast needs a target while the Deny Reality will always have one. So I basically run Seismic Assault, Bloodbraid Elf, Swans of Bryn Argoll, Deny Reality, Ad Nauseam and a mess of land.
I’ve found that the Elves are sufficient to ensure that the Seismic Assault gets out, which is another strike against the Blast. The trick is getting the Swans out successfully. I often had multiple Seismic Assaults on the board (which isn’t as bad as it sounds with 1 mana enchantment removal around). However, using Deny Reality to pull an Elf & an Assault is suboptimal. I’d like a way to avoid this.
The match I lost was to Red Deck Wins. First game just burned me faster than I could burn him. I won second game and the third was lost to a sided in Thought Hemorrhage, which in a fit of top-decking luck got both the Swans and the Ad Nauseam. I’m not sure there’s a decent strategy against Thought Hemorrhage, as any additional spell spells, like counters, dilute the effect of the cascade.
Another option I’m considering is the Reliquary Tower just in case you get an Ad Nauseam without the Assault in place, as I did once and had to discard a mess of land.
I’d like to know what other strategies people have, or if we’ll just have to race the hate if we want to play this deck.
You must log in to post a comment.