Breakdown in Phase III, Part 1

Something you might want to read before reading this blog post is my article The Breakdown of Theory from Star City Games. This article outlined my theory for Phases in Magic, how duels progress through three distinct Phases that have particular attributes (quite different from the vague and generally inaccurate early game / mid game / late game typical nomenclature).

The interesting thing that I was thinking about this week is how certain matchups can change in Phase III. The initial example I thought of was my Jushi Blue from New York States 2005 when we went three for three into the Top 8, losing only to one another.

My Top 4 matchup was with a player called Eric Marro with Splice Gifts (whom I had previously beaten in the Swiss). The Gifts matchup was generally considered to be in favor of Jushi Blue (in fact, my friend Julian Levin originally intended to play Gifts but I soundly beat him something like 6-0 the week prior to States and he decided to switch to the good guy team… with fine result). However the interesting thing was that my games with Eric in the Top 4 went verylong — easily to the Phase III stage of the game — and something unexpected happened.

I actually started to run out of “stuff”!

Check out our deck lists:

Flores

1 Mikokoro, Center of the Sea
2 Dimir Aqueduct
10 Island
1 Miren, the Moaning Well
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
4 Quicksand
1 Shizo, Death’s Storehouse
4 Watery Grave
1 Minamo, School at Water’s Edge
3 Meloku the Clouded Mirror
4 Jushi Apprentice
3 Keiga, the Tide Star
4 Boomerang
3 Disrupting Shoal
4 Hinder
4 Mana Leak
4 Remand
2 Rewind
4 Threads of Disloyalty
Sideboard
3 Cranial Extraction
4 Execute
4 Drift of Phantasms
2 Rewind
1 Dimir Aqueduct
1 Meloku the Clouded Mirror

Marro:

1 Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers
7 Forest
1 Island
3 Llanowar Wastes
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Shizo, Death’s Storehouse
5 Swamp
2 Tendo Ice Bridge
1 Watery Grave
1 Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni
1 Hana Kami
3 Kagemaro, First to Suffer
1 Kokusho, the Evening Star
2 Meloku the Clouded Mirror
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Carven Caryatid
1 Myojin of Night’s Reach
1 Death Denied
1 Farseek
4 Gifts Ungiven
1 Goryo’s Vengeance
4 Kodama’s Reach
2 Putrefy
4 Sensei’s Divining Top
4 Sickening Shoal
1 Soulless Revival
1 Wear Away
Sideboard
1 Cranial Extraction
1 Execute
1 Exile into Darkness
1 Ghost-Lit Stalker
1 Goryo’s Vengeance
1 Grave-Shell Scarab
2 Hideous Laughter
1 Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni
2 Kokusho, the Evening Star
1 Nezumi Graverobber
1 Pithing Needle
1 Rending Vines
1 Shadow of Doubt

My deck — per usual for me designing a Blue deck — was built for speed. It was built for Defensive Deck Speed, answering opponents very quickly, and then tried to accrue sufficient card advantage to overwhelm a Gifts-type opponent by switching to beatdown and protecting Keiga or Meloku for the few turns necessary to force the terminus. The problem was that while I had fast reaction to everything Eric could present in Phases I-II, it seemed like the games could go long enough that he could “come back” just because he had more “stuff” than I did.

In fact, this is a mis-analysis. Gifts should win in Phase III, should it get to a true Phase III position. Jushi is the beatdown; consider:

Remand is a great card, one-for-one. However the opponent still has the card (if not the mana he put into the card) whereas you cycle into something else (which can be an awesome card, or it might be a Dimir Aqueduct).

Mana Leak is a great card on turn two, useless in Phase III if the opponent is careful.

Hinder is like Remand, but stranger… It is one-for-one, but in a really long game, Eric would still have that “countered stuff” in his deck whereas I could at some point be in a position of deck exhaustion.

Unexpectedly — and from a Phases perspective — the Jushi deck wants to keep the match in a deep Phase II. Jushi’s Phase II is better than Splice’s Phase II. Jushi does not have a legitimate Phase III (simply the best Phase II in the format at the time), however it can be trumped by Splice’s legitimate Phase III, should the game come to that point.

I lost both Game Ones to Eric (both in Swiss and in the Top 8)… At the time I blamed it on drawing too many Threads of Disloyalty (which was probably partly true), but I think I may have erred on Misassignment of Game Role! Imagine! Jushi is the beatdown in the Gifts matchup because it can’t withstand a Phase III (Eric overwhelmed me in both the Game Ones he took, going long), complete with a Sculpting of the Perfect Hand on his part.

Here is a short interview with Eric Marro from Top8Magic

Here is BDM and Julian chatting about my matchup

So why am I thinking about this right now?

Well, part of it is that I am working on States decks for 2008… and part of it is that I am kind of worried about losing in Phase III even if I love my deck.

Here is a four-color control deck that is my current favorite deck:

2 Makeshift Mannequin
2 Shriekmaw
4 Cryptic Command
4 Mulldrifter
4 Remove Soul
4 Bant Charm
4 Esper Charm
4 Kitchen Finks
2 Archon of Justice
4 Wrath of God
4 Flooded Grove
4 Mystic Gate
2 Plains
4 Reflecting Pool
4 Sunken Ruins
4 Vivid Creek
4 Vivid Meadow

Sideboard
4 Relic of Progenitus
3 Primal Command
4 Condemn
4 Wispmare

Here is a five-color control deck advocated by Evan Erwin from a recent episode of The Magic Show:

3 Island
2 Pyroclasm
2 Wrath of God
1 Condemn
1 Cascade Bluffs
2 Flooded Grove
1 Nucklavee
4 Mulldrifter
4 Cryptic Command
2 Shriekmaw
4 Vivid Creek
3 Vivid Grove
3 Vivid Marsh
2 Vivid Meadow
2 Negate
2 Cruel Ultimatum
3 Esper Charm
3 Bant Charm
2 Mystic Gate
1 Firespout
3 Fulminator Mage
4 Kitchen Finks
2 Sunken Ruins
4 Reflecting Pool

Sideboard
3 Condemn
2 Cloudthresher
2 Jace Beleren
1 Makeshift Mannequin
2 Mind Shatter
1 Cruel Ultimatum
1 Bant Charm
3 Memory Plunder

Evan’s deck has Cruel Ultimatum… Per my usual designs, I have built my control deck to tap out quickly and for Defensive Deck Speed. Will it lose, lacking a Phase III, in this mirror?

By the by, Memory Plunder in Evan’s sideboard looks pretty saucy for the mirror. I built my deck so that I could theoretically sideboard Knight of the White Orchid for the mirror; you can see what a difference in philosophy that is… I want to start winning in Phase I or Phase II whereas the Erwin / Chapin set wants even more Cruel Ultimatums. Realistically, I think I will have to sideboard Hindering Light to win, nay crush, in the mirror’s long game.