Bonehoard :: Lhurgoyf :: Inevitability
TDC Heat :: Sword of Feast and Famine :: … and Bonehoard
Bonehoard
I can’t believe I missed this one when initially, especially given my history.
Bonehoard is almost strictly better than a card that I considered a bomb in previous years, Lhurgoyf.
I played Lhurgoyf in my 1998 Northeast Regionals deck, TDC Heat (you may remember this deck from the pre-Psylum version of The Dojo, or perhaps from my writeup of Lord of Extinction two years ago). I think I testedmore for that Regionals than almost any other tournament I’ve ever played. The big decks at the time were Deadguy Red, Tradewind Rider decks, and Mono-Blue Control. TDC Heat, with its islandwalking River Boas, was extraordinarily effective against the Blue decks. Against the Red ones, your creatures were simply better than theirs, you had Uktabi Orangutan to smash Cursed Scroll, and would trade one-for-one with everything else. Then, as the dust cleared, you would untap with a gigantic Lhurgoyf. Rawr.
Bonehoard, as I said, is almost strictly better than Lhurgoyf. For four mana, you tap for a [potentially] huge X/X… just one tiny toughness off of Lhurgoyf. The differences are:
Bonehoard’s Living Weapon is Black, not Green. Black creatures don’t die to Doom Blade, and therefore are more resilient than Green creatures, all other things held equal.
You don’t stop at just one.
I honestly don’t know how I missed this one. Not only is Bonehoard the stones by itself, but you can move it onto an evasion creature for a mere two mana. You can not just play — but continue to play — the attrition game. One problem with Lhurgoyf was that as big and powerful as it could be — including after a Wrath of God against a control player — it was still just one creature. Someone might kill it. You might be able to kill the Living Weapon, but the next guy, and the Next guy, and the NEXT guy after that would all be able to hit as hard.
Also, you might kill in one with Inkmoth Nexus
So… Bonehoard or Sword of Feast and Famine?
I am pretty sure — especially given Sword of Feast and Famine’s performance in Paris this week — that the latest Sword is the higher ranking piece of Mirrodin Besieged equipment, but there will probably be decks that want to play lots of Bonehoards. I can envision some future incarnation of Green or White creatures tapping and trading and playing Bonehoard after Bonehoard. “Just” creature elimination is not going to be able to deal with these beyond the Living Weapon. Even a puny Birds of Paradise will go lethal very quickly, given the right conditions.
Thrun, the Last Troll :: Sun Titan :: The Rock
Young Justice :: Tom Martell :: … and Thrun, the Last Troll
If you watched the first couple of episodes of the new “Young Justice” cartoon, you know that Dick Grayson is wondering why no one is just whelmed. First Mr. Freeze is underwhelmed at Robin coming after him; then the future Young Justice kiddies are overwhelmed at the majesty of entering the Hall of Justice and seeing the gigantic statues of the League founders. Underwhelmed… overwhelmed… surely you grok at this point.
But as for Thrun, the Last Troll… I think I may fulfill Robin’s requested measure of whelmed-ness.
Thrun, the Last Troll
First, let me tell you a story.
Pro Tour LA (Antoine’s)… I am 1-0 after a haymaker-after-haymaker-exchanging brawl with Dragonstorm.
Second round Feature Match against Hall of Famer-to-be Raphael Levy. Raph was on B/G beatdown and I was playing B/W cycling. Sadly, the format was Extended. I felt like I had a heavy absolute advantage in the matchup with lots of creatures elimination and sweepers, but Raph had the edge in speed and skill, so I had relatively little margin for error. We split the first two games and were deep in the third.
Unsurprisingly, Levy has the early lead but I battle back with a lot of cycling… Undead Gladiator helping me hit my land drops and relevant removal spells; Eternal Dragon fueling Undead Gladiator (and obviously helping me hit my land drops). I get Raph to no cards in hand and tap for an Eternal Dragon to hold off his squad (headlined by a Troll Ascetic).
He topdecks Putrefy and smashes.
Raph’s mid-game topdecks are pretty lame, as he can basically draw Birds of Paradise and Llanowar Elves… and does.
I manage my life total and figure out how I am going to win. I need to get a little bit up in cards (Eternal Dragon for that), then use the bonus to bring back Undead Gladiator (cheaper to play), and chump his Troll for a couple of turns until I can play two Eternal Dragons and start attacking with one of them. Three turn clock, max, once those paps are online.
My plan is to just cycle up lands and pitch them into Gladiators. I have 10+ lands in play but I still need a couple more to be able to re-buy, chump, other re-buy, and hit double Dragons; I should have just enough cards to keep chumping, provided Levy doesn’t play another relevant threats (that is, something big enough to knock over a Dragon) in the next couple of turns. Over the course, Raph draws another Putrefy to get damage in through a Dragon, but I think I am okay (if armed with relatively little margin for error).
Then tragedy strikes.
I draw Haunting Echoes.
“Ooh,” I think. “New plan!”
I mean “maybe” new plan, right? New-ish. I can pitch a Haunting Echoes for an Undead Gladiator as easily as I can discard a Plains. Plus, if I topdeck a Wrath of God I can just go for the throat and win on the spot. So I hold Haunting Echoes as my card for the turn upon starting to set up my game plan.
Remember how Raph was topdecking irrelevant Birds of Paradise? Amazingly you can convert one of those into the Flashback on a Cabal Therapy. Sure, Raph missed the front side (I mean who else in this tournament was playing Eternal Dragon, Undead Gladiator, and Skeletal Scrying)… But the second time around?
Goodbye Haunting Echoes.
So now I no longer have the card I need for next turn’s Gladiator re-buy as I set up another Eternal Dragon. Had I held a Plains instead, he wouldn’t have been able to strip me of the required Gladiator re-buy. Plus, Raph has a Sword of Fire and Ice on his Troll Ascetic, so when I have to block with my Eternal Dragon, he flaps his wings sloppily into ye olde graveyard.
Uh-oh about that new plan.
Now I really have to mise up a new plan.
I vigorously cycle on my upkeep, needing Wrath of God. Then, with six maan remaining, Undead Gladiator answers my call.
Akroma’s Vengeance!
I have just enough to take out Levy’s Sword, plus sweep all his irrelevant little dudes alongside his Troll Ascetic.
I sit back in my chair, thanking God and library manipulation for my luck.
“Um… Regenerate?”
Regenerate!
No! Stupid Troll Ascetic!
Raph swings in for the kill.
The real story here is how I should have played with focus and follow through, but the immediate issue for the present case is that Trolls regenerate.
Thrun, the Last Troll is Troll Ascetic, ostensibly improved.
If the match were taking place in the present, I wouldn’t even have been able to cycle into Wrath of God for the win; because now Wrath of God — that is Day of Judgment — lets Trolls regenerate out.
The fact is, there are relatively few answers given our current Standard framework for Thrun. You can’t point a Mana Leak at it, and — at least the turn after the turn it hits — Thrun is difficult to remove with spells. Earlier this week I expressed underwhelmed-ness to some friends RE: Thrun… Sure, you can’t target him — but I kept forgetting that on top of all that other text, on top of the pretty resilient body, the last Troll also regenerates.
Aesthetics Thrun, the Last Troll is reminiscent of Troll Ascetic, with an additional layer of defense against Blue permission spells. It costs one additional mana but gains hugely in power and toughness; a 4/4 for four mana considered highly efficient given the presence of three relevant abilities. The second one is in particular worth a mention given that Thrun should be a heck of a swordsman. If you improve it just a little bit via equipment, Thrun jumps the power curve more than most any other creature in Standard, combining superior size with essentially extraordinary resilience. Answering Thrun will often be a test balancing patience and timing.
I think Thrun is exactly as good as a creature has to be to be seriously considered at four. Its perceived over-the-top-ness in terms of power level relative to curve point is essentially necessary considering it is actually competing with cards like Oracle of Mul Daya or Garruk Wildspeaker, rather than combat creatures for space (given the marketplace).
My question, though, aesthetically… What is Tom Martell going to do in a world with no more Trolls?
Where can I see Thrun, the Last Troll fitting in?
I think that Thrun, the Last Troll will be very Tarmogoyf-ish… Played heavily by decks that capable of casting it, but not played everywhere. For example, Tarmogoyf was often passed over in more controlling versions of The Rock; it was more desirable for them to play Sakura-Tribe Elder and Kokusho the Evening Star, rather than the uber-two. Great card, cross-deck Staple… But not everywhere-played.
Now obviously the decks that can — or are willing to — pay 2GG for a creature are far less common than those that can pay 1G for probably a larger creature. That will cut into Thrun’s market share, but it will still probably be everywhere-played. I don’t know that Eldrazi Ramp decks would play Thrun, even though they can; same reason Death Cloud The Rock didn’t play Tarmogoyf. Eldrazi Green, though? Probably. Aggressive two-color decks with GG capabilities will likely make room in the curve, though it is unclear whether Thun gets played over, say, a Vengevine. My intuition is that decks that want a Vengevine will still want a Vengevine, but that there can be decks that want both; say… six fours.
The biggest question mark around Thrun (I mean other than what Tom is going to do with his time) is around its cost. It’s a bit of a sell, especially given its initial non-invulnerability. Is Thrun better than Vengevine? Do you play more fours? How does it intersect relative to Baneslayer Angel? A Titan? The answers are not obvious and I don’t know that the right deck yet exists.
Snap Judgment Rating – Staple (low, Standard; Role Player – low elsewhere)
My general dislike of certain Sphinxes (Sphinx of Jwar Isle) and approval of other Sphinxes (Sphinx of Lost Truths) is fairly well known to readers of this blog.
With Consecrated Sphinx we have yet another Sphinx that I like better than Sphinx of Jwar Isle.
What is so cool about Consecrated Sphinx?
Its size isn’t remarkable for a modern Magical creature / fantastic beast / &c. A 4/6 is about as good as a 5/5… A turn off in terms of racing, but 5/5s and 4/6s bounce off of each other like superballs… We certainly can’t say that a 5/5 is strictly better than a 4/6 or vice versa. Mahamoti Djinn — once a premiere Big Blue flyer — was 5/6 for six, a bit better than Consecrated Sphinx’s 4/6… but then against Mahamoti Djinn lacked Consecrated Sphinx’s text box.
So how about that text box?
You tap out for Consecrated Sphinx; ka-boom… you draw two cards. (Pretty much.) You play a high toughness creature that probably isn’t going anywhere; your opponent untaps and draws the next turn: there are your two.
I mean if your opponent gets another draw, that’s going to be fantastic!
The first super cool thing I thought of when considering this card was Jace, the Mind Sculptor. I was like “how cool will it be to draw six cards?” Then I realized no one in his right mind would ever Brainstorm with Consecrated Sphinx in play. One card for six? That only happens in the movies.
Where can I see Consecrated Sphinx fitting in?
Obviously some kind of Blue control in Standard… Pretty much the only option. The issue here is that the six is extraordinarily competitive right now; there are Titans aplenty depending on whether the deck in question wants Frost Titan or one of the other Titans. Plus, there is Wurmcoil Engine, which seems like it will pick up in Standard popularity on the coattails of Treasure Mage. Drawing cards is super cool and all… I just don’t know if it will be good enough given the level of competition at the six.
The question is ultimately going to be about cards in hand v. battlefield, based on the metagame. When we were innovating tap-out in 2005, our desire was 100% driven by battlefield considerations. Keiga was a nightmare to get through, Meloku impregnable. Meloku in particular could close out games like lightning. I don’t get that read from Consecrated Sphinx… Even its 4/6 stats (already addressed) speak to a bit of a disconnect RE: this value.
However, it is possible that, given the grinding Planeswalkers and two-for-one-tastic cards, from Lead the Stampede to Treasure Mage, we are going to find ourselves in a Standard dominated by card advantage. If that is the case, by all means Consecrated Sphinx might be a hell of a grinder.
But it’s like Tsuyoshi used to say – “Depends on the metagame.”
Snap judgment rating – Role Player
Update!
This came in via beloved Unstoppable Twitter Army:
Great idea from Nico! Jace Beleren actually makes Consecrated Sphinx a good deal better than I originally thought. Provided you have battlefield control for the creatures that are too big for it to battle straight up, I think this may end up a premiere six.
Ironic note: Yes, I know this is actually being published on a Saturday
Concerning:
Star City Games Questions :: Top Chef Draft :: The Cape
Young Justice, episode 2 :: P!nk’s new video :: … you know, “everything”
ONE – Star City Games Questions
Most of you probably know that I started writing for Star City Premium [again] last week. Now I am going to answer all the questions you asked around this possibly (?) surprising (?) return.
frm yes, i have a question: why did you take so long to come back?
Unfortunately, I am not sure how to answer this question. I mean, what is “so long” in this context? If you want to submit a follow up question, I will try harder?
Err… I do everything my wife says.
themandotcom Though I understand your motivations, but this marks the end of Michael J Free-ness!
It absolutely does not mark the end of Michael J Free-ness. I still write Top Decks every week on DailyMTG; and I think I’ve updated this blog more this week than I have in certain months!
MinnesotaMatt
They better have backed up a truck.
Can you give us an idea of how long the contract lasts so that we can know which subscription to sign up for.
I left premium with you and now will sign up as they got you back.
There is no specific termination date to my writing at Star City, so I can’t tell you to only buy such-and-such package if your interest in Premium tracks only to my being there. I can tell you that I have planned about 20 pieces over the next two months, as well as another as-yet unannounced large-scale project (um… oops?)
Alfrebaut Damn, does this mean I have to start getting SCG Premium again? Also, what does this mean about TCGPlayer? Are you writing 2-3 articles per week plus making videos?
I am doing about 10 total pieces on Star City this month and next (articles and videos), plus Top Decks. I am not currently writing at TCGPlayer. We haven’t plotted out what I will be doing in March yet, but I would expect to still be at SCG then
Frelance It’s all a trick. Really it’s BELLA under contract to SCG now, not Mike
This isn’t a question. Think “Jeopardy”.
GRat I have a question, when are you sending me Blightning? :p
Um, you have my phone number.
ReeceP [From Twitter] I have a question. Why did you make me spend money again?! Damn yooou! Should @SteveSadin share some blame?
[Separately, here on the blog]I think I have a real question. In your explanation article, you talk about How to mashup. My question is – Why mashup (in the abstract)?
Also (there’s always more <_<) specific to the decks involved with the UW Mashup – What does mashing up the two decks in question gain rather than porting them to current extended? Did you prior/have you since tried extended versions of those decks, and if not do you have any gut feelings as to how they would go?
[Twitter question] – Yes, you have to. It is required. On the check you send, write “Michael J. Flores” on the “memo” line.
[Regular questions] – A couple of reasons… 1) Opponents are more likely to make mistakes when playing against mashups because they don’t anticipate the other awesome thing you are going to do when they put resources towards the first awesome thing, 2) different decks have different matchup advantages in the context of a metagame and mashup decks can often take advantage of multiple predator positions, and 3) the cost is relatively low in many cases, certainly in this one.
TWO – Top Chef Draft
Sick week for the home team on the Top Chef front. For those of you following at home, this is how the draft went:
This week my horse Carla took down the elimination challenge for (-2) points and I got an extra (-1) from Tre’s appearance in the winners’ circle.
It was a double elimination week, so double dagger for Luis (Tiffani) and Megan (Jamie… who was more than due to go).
Current standings:
YT: 2
Phil: 3
Luis: 20
Megan: 23
I am once again in the lead, but the long odds have to be on Phil right now… He has Angelo (one of the two favorites) and Filipino Dale (a surprise monster this season). Many pundits probably have Megan more likely to win than YT (she has Marcel, who can win) when I lost my first pick last week… But for now, I’ll enjoy my lead
THREE – The Cape
From BDM’s Twitter feed / Facebook:
The Cape was not good.
I don’t think it’s as bad as BDM apparently does, but I think his 140-character analysis is pretty hilarious.
The Cape is full of ludicrous comic book cliches. I would tell you some of them but you would never believe me. Okay, you twisted my arm / pulled my leg. The hero is an ex-cop on the run after being framed for being — you guessed it — a supervillain mastermind… by the actual supervillain mastermind (because, you know… cops are fierce fighters adjacent to hand-to-hand vigilantes on the metagame clock of “what to do on a Saturday night”).
He is recruited by a carnival of crime (btw there is such a thing in the Marvel universe as the Circus of Crime), who taps him (as a former police officer) to pull of some, you know crimes [I didn't really understand this part, but I was playing MTGO at the time]. Then, inexplicably they turn good, start risking their lives for his quest to redeem himself and unseat the supervillain mastermind, and, you know, train him to be a superhero.
Two paragraphs ago I said The Cape is full of comic book cliches; what I mean was just cliches. The supervillain mastermind is the boss of a security firm that is privatizing the police force. So it is also a diatribe against privatization. Because, you know, companies are bad. Or something.
Did I mention the show isn’t good?
Yeah, I’ll probably watch the show until it gets canceled around ep four or whatever; but don’t expect me to like it.
FOUR – Young Justice, episode 2
I liked it!
The first episode ended with our heroes being decked by a then-enslaved Superboy. Predictably (if only from the promo art), Superboy turns face, frees Robin, Kid Flash, and Aqualad, and the four go on to found the as-yet-unnamed [on-screen] squad of Young Justice.
At the end of the episode they are joined by the uber-cute Miss Martian, shape-shifting “niece” of the Justice League’s Oreo-addicted JJ. So at this point they are just missing the female archer shown in much of the promo art. I don’t consider any of this spoiler-iffic as the first two eps are just a “gathering of eagles” and that you could imagine into place by watching a commercial.
Dissatisfying plot points:
Speaking of archers… I would have liked to see some on-screen attention to getting Speedy / Red Arrow [back]. What? Does Robin not have his cell phone number?
Annoying – Cadmus has Robin, Aqualad, and Kid Flash tied up. I am not sure Kid Flash even has a secret identity, but Dick Grayson’s real name would be at a premium… But Robin still has his domino mask on while shackled. Not only that, but they leave him his utility belt, lock picks, holographic iPads or whatever… Everything he would need to bust out (which he does).
What I loved: My favorite character is Aqualad. I talked about him in the last post, and I like him even more now. They haven’t explained his water manipulation or electric eel powers on-screen yet, but I like how he uses them in the battles!
Old buddy Marc Aquino pointed out that there is an all-new Aqualad in the DC Universe that was recently introduced in Brightest Day (I obviously wasn’t aware). The Young Justice Aqualad seems to be based on that cat, instead of the original:
The new DC Universe Aqualad character.
Overall, loved Young Justice and plan on watching every ep ever… With Clark and Bella of course.
FIVE – P!nk’s New Video
A lot of you cats know who Bella Flores is. For example you have seen this video:
Now because Bella loves Batman more than some of her own family members, wants to major in “fighting badguys” in school, and has deep interests that include karate, chess, and Sorin Markov, lots of peeps on the outside think that I have exerted some kind of undue influence on her young opinions.
The truth is, this couldn’t be further from the truth.
Bella has a strong affinity with… understanding things. About three years ago, we let her use the computer to look at like Mickey Mouse Club videos on a Disney website. Despite being three and (at least as far as we knew) incapable of reading, Bella successfully navigated to the [more interesting] Batman- and Power Rangers-themed action video games that were also present on Disney properties.
Power Rangers was her gateway drug, but now Bella likes heroes the max.
So in terms of my being an undue influence on her… not true. In fact, she is more of an influence on me than you might expect. P!nk is Bella’s favorite artist (primarily due to hit “So What”), and because she tends to like stuff I like, I decided to try stuff she likes…
… which is how we are concluding with P!nk’s new vid. It is my early pick for video of the year (last year’s nod would have gone to “Telephone” by Lada Gaga + Beyonce). Enjoy!
“Raise Your Glass” by P!nk
This is a video of memorable, somewhat shocking, and generally effed-up visual images; my personal fave (I don’t know if the word “fave” actually applies here) is at about 1:11.
I played in a few 1 v. 1 Extended queues with Masashi Oiso’s Wargate deck and filmed (x-1) of them; obviously the HyperCam exploded during the one match I lost (a mirror where I was savagely out-drawn)… So I am just going to add to this same blog post over the course of the day as the videos finish exporting and uploading to YouTube.
In case you haven’t seen it, Oiso’s Wargate deck goes a little something like this:
So check back over the course of the day or so (or wait until tomorrow at TCGPlayer). Quote of the week (so far), from YouTube side:
“… I use Clarion Ultimatum instead in this deck. it’s pretty much the same except it costs 3 more mana and can get easily countered.”
Love it!
Wargate Two – Vivid Control:
Wargate Three – Destiny:
On the one hand, this one is guest starring Bella Flores; on the other hand, the YouTube army pointed out one millisecond after I posted it that I missed an on-table kill. Doh!
Phyrexian Crusader :: Phyrexian Crusader? :: Um… that’s about it
This is a follow up from the Mirran Crusader post earlier this week. If you have seen that card, you’ve probably also seen the bad guy opposite number, Phyrexian Crusader:
Phyrexian Crusader
What can we say about this cat Zombie Knight?
Aesthetics:
Just as with Mirran Crusader, Phyrexian Crusader seems very close to a strict upgrade to onetime staple Paladin en-Vec. It is not a true strict upgrade because Paladin en-Vec is a different color (it would be like comparing Fresh Volunteers with Wild Mongrel or something)… But for practical purposes, Phyrexian Crusader is just better.
They have very parallel if not identical mana costs (1BB to the original’s 1WW), and both have the same “Protection from Lightning Bolt ” to go along with “Protection from Doom Blade Guy” … But in addition to first strike, Phyrexian Crusader also dodges Oust and has Infect.
Infect is neither better nor worse than not-Infect in the abstract, but for the most part creatures with Infect have been smaller than regular creatures for the same cost. It’s really not better. Wither is better, but Infect is just different. While Infect kind of deals double damage to players, it can be less effective against creatures. For example take Infect creature Cystbearer. Against a player it is kind of a 4/3 but it doesn’t even really trade with a comparably costed Silt Crawler (which you would never play in Standard). Keep in mind in the heads up race, Mirran Crusader also does double damage
My main concern about the size (specifically power) of Infect creatures is that they are much less effective — given comparable costs — against Planeswalkers. Mirran Crusader will whack the average Jace, the Mind Sculptor with one swing; not so Phyrexian Crusader.
… Just something to think about when evaluating the abilities on a creature like this one.
That said, as was pointed out by Propagandist in the previous blog post comments, Phyrexian Crusader is basically un-killable. Not only does this creature dodge all the same removal as Paladin en-Vec did (and make for more practical protection from Journey to Nowhere than Mirran Crusader’s “Protection from Aspect of Wolf (or whatever)” Phyrexian Crusader might be a fine combattler. Context will determine much of this as the format unfolds, but I can see him first striking down the power of larger animals, and walking away even when he doesn’t win.
Where Can I See This Fitting In?
Right now I would guess Phyrexian Crusader will be limited to an Infect linear deck. The problem with this creature relative to Mirran Crusader is that he doesn’t add much to “regular” strategies. I mean you can throw him in next to Black Knight and the opponent will just let Phyrexian Crusader hit four times before thinking about dealing with the new guy. The damage [plus Poison Counters] just don’t add up. Maybe he will get some good teammates, or maybe he will make for some kind of a stop sign / sideboard switcheroo (say holding back an entire White army or buying 100 turns against a Red Deck), but I don’t see the same potentially widespread adoption that the opposite number might have.
Even on the Infect team he isn’t the All-Star, but it is certainly the case that he helps upgrade the team (and with some help, potentially to Constructed legitimacy) by providing a much more legitimate option at a lower point in the curve.
I have been hot and cold over Paladin en-Vec over the years. Generally I am not on the same side as the little White creatures, and I am basically never on the side of playing two power combat creatures for three mana… But back when Paladin en-Vec + Umezawa’s Jitte was “the best combo in Standard” (credit: Tsuyoshi Fujita) I did make Budget Boros, which was an influential and successful deck in its day.
Anyway, enough about me…
Mirran Crusader is almost a strict upgrade to Paladin en-Vec.
Both creatures have the same mana costs (1WW), the same brawlin’ stats (2/2), and Protection from Black. Paladin en-Vec has Protection from Red and Mirran Crusader replaces that with Protection from Green. Let’s table the color difference on those abilities for a moment and move onto the First Strike line.
The original has First Strike; Mirran Crusader matches with Double Strike… Which is like First Strike stapled onto regular-strike… Making Mirran Crusader a highly efficient four power attacker, especially when left unblocked.
Mirran Crusader may very well make for the most aggressive Double Strike creature ever (or at least since Boros Swiftblade)… If Paladin en-Vec + Umezawa’s Jitte was supposed to be the best combo in Standard back a few years ago, what does that mean for Mirran Crusader? This is a cat (err… Human Knight) who can tussle with a Primeval Titan and walk away. What happens when you slap Adventuring Gear on it? Does Mirran Crusader singlehandedly blank the entire Vampires deck?
I mean probably.
I think we can all agree that Mirran Crusader is a near-strict upgrade to an old favorite, and is even more wicked once you start making him bigger, especially up front.
Now let’s get back to the issue of Protection from Red versus Protection from Green. Protection from Green is not as good as Protection from Red. As in part of what made Paladin en-Vec so super duper is that you could put Umezawa’s Jitte on him and no one was going to Doom Blade or Lightning Bolt (or shall we say Terror or Shock) in response. When it comes to instant speed Red removal, Mirran Crusader is so wide open he might as well be that new Mel Gibson movie.
Don’t get me wrong; this should still be an excellent drop… It is just not a strict upgrade, and Red Decks will actually be happy to face it a lot of the time, despite the absurd number of high quality abilities.
Did you see what that guy did with three mana? Shock you! … I mean it. I MEANT THE MIRRAN CRUSADER. Die, Knight, die!
So the previous blog post lined up scoring based on Swiss points.
However the scoring criteria for #WorldsDraft is individual PT points. So like I said it is deceptive. The standings based on projected PT points is not close at all.
The reason?
Only two drafters have a Top 16 player — YT and Osyp. And Osyp is way out of contention. The other player with a Top 16 player is YT… And I also have a Top 8 player.
So Jamie being tied with me and Patrick at present is highly deceptive. His Shuuhei Nakamura at 18 is worth a PT point less than my Joshua Utter-Leyton at 16. Huzzah!
If Worlds ended right now, I would win by a huge margin of over 10%; I counted all Top 8 players as 12 PT points (5-8) rather than their Swiss positions (despite his position in the Swiss, PV hasn’t won the PT yet).
Here are my numbers, with projected PT points based on last year’s Worlds numbers:
As you can see, the current standings are much less close…
Osyp – 18
Jamie – 24
YT – 31
Phil – 26
Patrick – 27
Therefore I would be overjoyed if Efro ran the tables and won, with all of our current Top 8 horses losing in the quarterfinals. Remember, PV is a very serious threat to Brad Nelson’s once seemingly insurmountable Player of the Year lead.
Interestingly there is one other threat.
According to Twitter…
Should Efro fail to win his quarterfinal match to my horse Guillaume Matignon [please don't lose, Efro], I would like to see Matignon win it all. Why? In addition to locking YT as the winner of #WorldsDraft, that would put Matignon in a tie for Player of the Year with Brad! It would go to a playoff (which in this amazing fantasy Brad would win); I think that there would be awesome drama around Brad falling so far, but being given a chance to retain his Player of the Year title on the field of battle.
Very Maher v. Finkel 2000 if you get the reference
To the loser? He is forced to write an in-depth strategy article on the format Momir Vig.
Pick order was [somehow] determined by Star City Somebody Ted Knutson; it went a little something like this:
Osyp Lebedowicz
Jamie Parke
YT
Phil Napoli
Patrick Chapin
The format was a traditional Rochester wheel for the first four rounds of picks; but Patrick (before he was assigned #5, mind you), asked that pick orders be identical for rounds four and five. That is, 1-5, 5-1, 1-5, 5-1, 5-1. The theory being that in the last round most of the prime picks would be gone anyway, and it would be unfair to give Osyp another first crack. With that out of the way, this is how things shook out:
Round One:
Osyp – Brad Nelson
Jamie – Luis Scott-Vargas
YT – Martin Juza
Phil – Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa
Patrick – Gerry Thompson
Osyp’s first pick here was hella obvious. All five of us would have made the same first pick. I would have second picked LSV, as Jamie did as well. This left YT with an interesting decision. I went with Juza, though there are a number of reasonable options… for example Phil’s pick of PV. Patrick set up his wheel with Gerry Thompson, a nod to his friend and collaborator… Who coming off a number of strong domestic fishes — err finishes — recently, might have been hotter than the PoY standings indicated.
Round Two:
Patrick – Gabriel Nassif
Phil – Brian Kibler
YT – Joshua Utter-Leyton
Jamie – Shuuhei Nakamura
Osyp – Tsuyoshi Ikeda
Patrick made another wild pick; his theory (and it is a good one) was just that Nassif is the 3d best player of all time, and still a heck of a performer. I mean how long ago was his PT win? Exactly. I mean what would the PoY race have looked like if Nassif, LSV — or heck, Brad — decided to travel to as many GPs as the Japanese?
Phil’s slam of Brian Kibler looked prophetic through the first two days… and who wouldn’t want to root for a Kibler?
I took what would be a controversial pick in Joshua Utter-Beatings. I took some flak from Teddy after the draft, but I had a clear idea of who I wanted on my team, and I didn’t want to risk Josh being taken by one of the other drafters. As Osyp would later point out, National Team members are “more motivated” due to higher EV… But that isn’t why I took Josh. He had hands-down the best deck at US Nationals (even though his collaborators played everything from Pyromancer Ascension to DredgeVine), and Worlds has two Constructed events.
Jamie stole Shuuhei, and Osyp made basically the worst pick of the draft in Ikeda. Nothing against Ikeda — he has 300+ PT points and not-distant PT finals appearance, but he could have gone way later… I guess I am making the same argument against “the other Tsuyoshi” that Teddy made against my Utter-Leyton pick.
Round Three:
Osyp – Antoine Ruel
Jamie – Paul Rietzl
YT – Andre Coimbra
Phil – Michael Jacob
Patrick Guillaume Wafo-Tapa
This round was 80% sentimental picks and 20% “Phil trying to put Patrick on tilt.” Phil was successful. I know I could have gotten Coimbra later in the draft but was afraid that Osyp would try to do to me what Phil did to Patrick this round so I pulled the trigger.
Round Four:
Patrick – Katsuhiro Mori
Phil – Ben Stark
YT – David Williams
Jamie – Conley Woods
Osyp – Yuuya Watanabe
This round was my only real dilemma. I wanted Katsu Mori — one of the most successful players ever at making Top 8 at Worlds and reigning Japanese National Champion — was going to be my Round Four pick. Patrick had the same information I did and made a superb fourth pick there. I decided to go with my planned fifth pick. Osyp rounded out the round with what looked like the best pick of the draft, Watanabe at motherloving on zillionth or whatever.
Final Round:
Patrick – David Ochoa
Phil – Kyle Boggemes
YT – Guillaume Matignon
Jamie – Matt Sperling
Osyp – Christian Calcano
This round didn’t seem particularly strategic to me as an observer or a participant. I mean I was planning to take Dave this round. Osyp said he was so satisfied with his first four picks that he almost took Jonny Magic here out of respect; who would have known his highest finisher would be Calcano?
The players I had left on my list of people I was willing to pick were Guillaume Matignon and Efro; the first three days of play tell us that they are now paired against each other in the Top 8. I was actually pretty surprised that no one took Efro!
I was always going to take Andre and Dave — I knew they would have the best Standard deck — plus who doesn’t root for the home team? Incidentally, how great is the Wave deck? It beats all five of the five most popular decks in Standard, and has a 75/25 edge over Valakut! The Extended deck (which to my knowledge no one played) was even better. [sad face]
Anyway, this is where we stand right now:
Nominally I am tied with Jamie and Patrick for first place, but the only players who can likely win — based on Top 8 — are YT, Patrick, and Phil. Jamie can’t improve; whereas Phil is nominally 9 points out of the lead, but that is deceptive. The Swiss numbers are misleading to begin with. For example My Utter-Leyton and Jamie’s Shuuhei are both “37 points” but IRL Utter-Leyton made Top 16 and Shuuhei finished 18th; Josh will probably be worth more points when PT points are announced.
And #WorldsDraft is ultimately going to be tallied by individual PT Points.
I hope you will all join me in cheering for Lukas Jaklovsky — but more importantly Jonathan Randle — as we go into Day Three. I can’t really cheer against EFro for something as silly as #WorldsDraft, but if PV wins… It’s not just the pall of Phil coming back from his initial lead thanks to having Kibler on his squad (incidentally Phil was the only drafter with two premium players on his squad, and only then because Patrick made two unusual ones to start)… But Brad will lose the PoY title!
