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You’re making the assumption that he has Honor, or that the game plays you think it does. Maybe he playtested enough to know his only winning plan is make dudes and hope we don’t have sweepers. If we have a 2/3 cc sweeper on turn3 doesn’t he always lose that game? If it looks to me that his only winning play is T3 make dudes, T4 Honor (or Ajani or what have you) maybe he’s realized that during his playtesting?

And you have to stop thinking Path is a 2 for 1. Its an even trade. We lose LB, he loses the Vanguard and Path but gains the Plains. Its an even trade (but a small loss of tempo depending on what he had in his hand for T3).

If he has Ajani in hand (which is almost as likely as him having Honor) then its quite possible that he can play 2 1cc critters this turn and Ajani next turn off the Path. Which could be a pretty good plan if his (currently 4 card hand) is Path, 2 1cc (or the Stalwart + 1 land) critters and Ajani. Which is also pretty bad for us.

You’re assuming Honor, and Harm’s Way. Ajani and Path are as if not more likely (Harm’s Way may not make WW sideboards and probably isn’t maindeckable).

I think bolt Vanguard during upkeep to try and push him off Spectral is the right play if the only way he looks like he can win is to play spectral now and a pump next turn.

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That does become an interesting debate though.
- do you play as if he were playing according to the standard play rules (ride your guys till they die by playing Honor now and don’t overcommit into sweepers)
- do you play as if he will play the only winning move, even though it might be uninituitive (you need critters now and pump later or he’s going to lose)

If you bolt his creature during his upkeep he’ll be FORCED to develop his board. If you wait to bolt the WW player might fall into the trap of playing Honor of the Pure. It’s a trap because it steals tempo away from the WW deck when you bolt the 2/1 in response.

He is going to ride the Lions and Stalwart all the way until Flores handles them. Especially if he has Honor of the Pure.

All the responsive spells he’s likely to have are one-drops, so no point in bolting now, so you pass the turn.

Key question is whether he taps out before combat. If so, then it is safe to blast something, and my vote would be for the stalwart, since even with an HOTP in play you can trade a Ranger for the Vanguard.

If he keeps mana up and swings with his guys, then you bolt the Vanguard to play around Harm’s Way - he could Path his own guy, but there aren’t a lot of ways to play around that move, and he is down a Path.

One more consideration - how worried are you about Spectral Procession tokens? Do you sandbag the Bolt? Cause you can tie up his dudes on the ground with Rangers, but don’t really have any answers for fliers…

It occured to me the only sequence of play that I’m actually likely to lose is one that involves him casting Spectral Procession on his next turn and then Honor of the Pure on the turn after that.

2 damage last turn + 2 damage this turn + 7 damage next turn when (Range blocks a token hoping to kill it) + 2 damage when the ranger block gets Harm’s Way’d back to our face - 4 from the OMG I need to stay alive Sunlight+7 (assuming Sunlight gets us removal or a blocker which I think it has to) = we’re at four when we wrath is just out of dying to a single Harm’s Way when he starts to rebuild and we drop our wurm. Should be winnable barring him responding to our wrath with a 2nd Spectral Procession… but we can’t eat damage this turn (by not bolting anything) and ideally we want him casting his Honor this turn and his potentical Spectral next turn.

So try to sucker him into tapping out during his upkeep by bolting the Vanguard and hoping he has the Path.