For 7 card hands: In order of how you should be thinking.
1) Can you cast any of the spells in your hand with the lands you already have? If no mulligan, if yes keep
2) Do the cards you have have any relevance to the matchup you’re playing? If no mulligan, if yes keep.

For 6 cards:
1) Is your 6 carder better then what you mulliganed?
2) Now follow rules for 7 card hand.

For 5 cards:
1) Do you have a mix of lands and spells? (Example 2 spells 3 land or vice versa) 4:1′s are keepable but 5:0′s are not.

For 4 or fewer:
Do you have a good mix of spells and lands 2:2 3:1 and even 0 spells and 4 lands is keepable.

So for your You Make the Play I would mulligan your hand! Even on the draw

Before sideboard, there’s about a 20.8% chance to whiff on creatures, 13.5% chance to whiff on land, and 0.6% chance to whiff on both. All told, it only nets a two-for-one 65% of the time. (Sometime tell me if I messed up my admittedly rusty math!) That does not seem reliable enough for a 3 mana sorcery.

B/W Tokens: This hand seems really bad here. While you will probably (roughly 1-(31/52)^3= 79%) draw your third land by your third turn, you will be forced for search for a Cloudthresher via Gift of the Gargantuan (Shriekmaw seems somewhat irrelevant). if you have not already drawn one or a fallout. In such a situation you would have given them four turns of unchecked board development in which they may also cast sculler (snagging your fallout or your thresher after you reveal it with gifts. If you play the wayfinder turn 3, you’ve still given them 4 turns of unchecked board development and have to rely purely on your draws to find some sweeper.

WG Tokens: This hand seems just as bad here. Here you’re still likely giving them 4 turns of unchecked development. With a faster kill condition in Overrun, you’d seem to be in bad shape (unless you draw a fallout). If they play a bunch of ground guys, you would likely play wayfinder (maybe finks?), and chump block. They could easily have the Wilt-Leif Leige turn 3-4, which I think mandates you casting gifts in an attempt to find a shriekmaw (there you would also have to find a swamp). If they cast spectral procession turn 3, you would probably gifts to try to find a thresher (if you hadn’t drawn the fallout).

*Both matchups (which I think will make 50%+ of the Regionals meta) suffer from having a clogged three drop slot and no turn 1-2 acceleration. Neither have the sweepers you want. A quick offense forces you to play Gifts to find a thresher (or perhaps shriekmaw for WLL), which gives them 4 turn of unchecked board development in which they can cast sculler. You seem way too dependent on drawing a fallout/thresher. I think mulliganing to 6 gives you a better chance at hitting a thresher/fallout hand.

Bant Aggro: The situations seems even worse for you here. You’re giving them at least 3 turns of unchecked board development. With acceleration, they could easily cast Rafiq before you do anything and hit with a mimic for 14 (worse case scenario, but not terribly uncommon). Here all your three-drop creatures may be irrelevant due Infiltrator(unblockable)/Mimic(trample)/Treetop Village (trample). Casting gifts to find a Shriekmaw seems bad because they will play another creature and you won’t have developed your board. Bant Charm prevents the persist on Finks. A Dauntless Escort mitigates the value on Fallout. This seems like a bad-matchup regardless of the hand so I’m not sure if a 6 card hand would be better (maybe you’d want to mull into Shriekmaw/ Fallout?).

B/W Kithin: I could be wrong, but this hand seems fine. You’d likely play the Finks turn 3 if you hadn’t already drawn a Fallout. If they have the path for Finks, you’ll probably lose, but they only have 4. Fallout’s value is mitigated by BFT (if MD) and Zealous Persecution (if MD). I don’t see a 6 card hand being better (it would require fallout/maw) so I’d keep.

RB aggro: seems rough to me. You give them 2 turns to attack without blockers. Turn 3 Finks would be the play (maybe Fallout, but they usually build around it). If they drop a turn 2 Outlander, Finks cannot block. Turn 3/4 Ram-Gang is annoying for you. God forbid they’re playing MD magma spray. Here, a 6 card is probably not better. I think you keep.

I don’t know about the other matchups (5 Color/ Lark) so I’ll defer to others. When I’m sitting down at Regionals (esp. in the later round), I will assume my opponent is playing Tokens. With this being a poor opening 7 vs. Token/Bant, I would mulligan as the average six card hand would give me a better chance at winning.

As has been brought up before, why not farhaven elf over wayfinder, is the +1/+1 really that much more important than actually accelerating you? There really aren’t that many things that a 2/2 goes into battle profitably with.

Also I agree with gift being lame.

Completely agree, as I’ve stated my opinion before in the last topic. Gift of the Gargantuan really does nothing and this deck can’t afford to play it imho.

That’s nearly as good a hand as you can get with this deck. Sure, a perfect mix of land, RampG, and removal would be nice, but if you mulligan for perfect hands you’ll be playing short all too often.

Doubting this hand is really doubting the deck. If you beleive in the deck, you should love this hand.

Worrying that you might not hit a land or RampG in the next two cards is the same as worrying about your next six after a mulligan. I say “next two cards”, cuz hitting on those two makes this a GREAT hand for this deck. Not hitting til the 3rd card will put you in a hole, but no worse than if you drew dull after a mulligan.

I just don’t beleive that throwing away a hand that is GREAT for the deck is something you should do out of fear for your future luck. If you play with RDW and draw a nuts opening hand, do you mulligan out of fear of top decking 4 lands?

GREAT hand? Ya. Not because of the Wayfinders. Not because of the Dragon. It’s a great hand because of the BLUE card – “Sorcery Speed Impulse for the Removal Some People Wanted to Mulligan For”. Yes, search for removal: Shriekmaw or Thresher. Both of which this hand will be able to play shortly.

It’s what this deck does.

Consider: Mind stone, or guys that survive fallout like putrid leech, elvish warrior / juvenile gloomwidow, anti bb and procession tech in groundling pouncer… even a poor man’s sensei’s top, cream of the crop, there’s tonnes of 2 drops that would be good in the deck.

Sandman is the sickest